ELNINO/LANINA OR NORMAL RAIN

Since the season began the Kyuso resident from lower eastern of Kenya had believed that there were expecting Elnino rain. After interview with some community members on who disseminated this information they were not sure since there are a lot of extension officers in the area. The farmers had prepared for much rainfall and were even advised to plant crops that required large amount of rainfall.

Talking to extension officers and local readers in Kyuso during a Kenya Adaptation to Climate change In Arid Areas meeting Mr. James K Muhindi from the forecast department of Kenya Meteorological centre opposed this and advised the extension officers to reverse this information since it might affect yield in this area. “The season is not long gone and so the information can be reversed” said Mr. Muhindi said”It is not yet too late” Mr. Muhindi thought it was wise for the extension officers in the area to develop smart extension messages for forecasts.

Mr. Muhindi was accompanied by Ayub Shaka who is an assistant director, Kenya meteorological department. Mr. Muhindi gave the factors that contribute to a rain from being considered Elnino or Lanina. He said they use the nino 3.4 rating and if it is above 0.6 for 5 consecutive months for example 1986 it is referred as moderated Elnino, below 0.6 for 3 consecutive months weak Elnino. He added that the continuing October November December rain could not be an Elnino since it doesn’t meet the above standards and therefore the farmers were misinformed    

The extension officers were amazed to get the weekly weather forecast from Mr. Shaka and Muhindi and were told to give feedback whether the projection was exact. Talking to one extension officer by phone I confirmed it rained as they had forecasted so people should have confidence with Kenya forecast department. 

Seasonal forecasting for OCT-NOV-DECEMBER 2012